Let’s talk about the business equivalent of going all-in with a rag ace and hoping for the best.
You’ve seen it:
Launching a rushed offer without testing
Hiring fast because someone on Instagram said “scale now”
Joining every trend hoping one will pay off
That’s the business version of playing bad hands and praying. It might work once, but in the long run? You lose.
As someone who plays poker and runs businesses, I’ve realised the overlap between poker and business is nuts. But yet most people don’t talk about it.
I think it’s because many people consider poker to be gambling. However, poker isn’t just a game of luck. It’s a game of long-term edge, calculated risk, emotional discipline, and decision-making under pressure.
And if you're building a business, there is no better mental model than poker strategy.
Let me show you that I’m not crazy…
The Problem: Founders Chasing Short-Term Wins
We live in a world where people are obsessed with fast success, especially in business. You’ve seen all the classic posts:
"10k months in 30 days!"
"Go viral overnight!"
"Just manifest the win!"
I think this content is actually incredibly dangerous. In fact, it’s toxic AF. It leads to big time amateur hour.
Entrepreneurs are chasing lucky hands, bluffing too much, and burning out.
In poker, if you keep making suboptimal decisions hoping for luck, the maths will beat you. In business, if you keep making short-term plays with no regard for long-term strategy, the market will beat you.
What separates the pros, in both worlds, is the ability to:
Think long-term
Manage risk
Stay disciplined through ups and downs
Play the player (aka read the market)
The poker skills essential for business
To learn about this in much more detail, please do check out my YouTube video I did on this topic!
I go through the skills you need to succeed in both poker and business and the dangers of taking shortcuts in either of them.
However, let me summarise some key comparisons here:
Protecting Your Bankroll
One of the number one rules in poker is not to play beyond your means. You need to manage your money well and ensure you can afford to fund the journey.
In business, you need to keep reserves and know your run rate, diversify your revenue and not overextend for fast growth.
Know Your EV
Understanding EV in poker is essential to make good decisions. The pros make decisions based on maths, not on emotion. Your EV is your expected value - each decision you make should make money in the long-run.
In business, are your actions adding long-term value or are you just gambling for a quick hit?
Avoid Emotional Decision-Making
There’s a phrase in poker called “tilt”, where players are annoyed about a previous hand and start making bad decisions due to their emotions. They let previous decisions affect future ones and the emotions cloud their judgement.
The same happens in business - after one bad month, founders start making bad decisions perhaps due to desperation or frustration.
Study Your Opponents and Market
It’s actually rarely about what cards you have in poker. It’s often about what your opponent has and what they think you have. So, this will depend on how you represent yourself.
Therefore, don’t just focus on your own offer, but read your customers and your competitors in order to play the game properly.
How Poker Thinking Helped Me Grow N0BS
When I launched N0BS, I had a choice:
Try to be everything to everyone
Or go ultra-specific, double down on my niche, and grow slowly but sustainably
I chose the second path. I folded a lot of hands (opportunities that didn’t align).I stuck to my strategy, even when growth was slow.And now? We’re seeing consistent wins - real community, real relationships, and real business being done.
Just like poker: I didn’t try to win fast; I am playing the long game.
ZERO TO SOMETHING
This is Zero to Something - where we learn something new each day to move forward.
Today’s something is this: build your business like a poker pro - focused, strategic, emotionally disciplined, and always playing the long game.
Anyone can get lucky once. But if you want to win consistently, you need a system that stacks the odds in your favour - not just a hope and a prayer.
RECOMMENDED READING
📘 Thinking in Bets by Annie Duke - Written by a professional poker player turned business strategist. Explores how decision-making under uncertainty applies to business and life
📙 The Biggest Bluff by Maria Konnikova - A psychologist learns poker to study luck, skill, and the psychology of winning
📗 The Truth Detective by Alex O’Brien - A professional poker player and science writer helps people sniff out the bullsh*t using poker strategies.
📄 Research article: “Risk, Reward, and Rationality: Strategic Thinking in Games and Business” (Harvard Business Review, 2022)